the numbers first
| metric | value |
|---|---|
| vehicles affected | 11 million worldwide |
| real-world NOx emissions | up to 40x legal limits |
| estimated premature deaths (europe) | 1,200+ (mit 2017) |
| us fines | $30+ billion |
| eu fines | fraction of us |
the data tells a story that’s hard to ignore.
what happened
in september 2015, the us environmental protection agency issued a notice of violation against volkswagen.
the charge: defeat device software that detected when vehicles were being tested and reduced emissions only during those tests. on real roads, with real people breathing, the cars emitted nitrogen oxides at up to 40 times the legal limit.
the affected brands: volkswagen, audi, seat, skoda, porsche.
interesting detail: the us epa caught this. not european regulators.
what european regulators knew
the eu’s joint research centre published studies in 2011, 2013, and 2014 documenting significant gaps between laboratory and real-world emissions.
| year | finding |
|---|---|
| 2011 | jrc study shows lab-road gap |
| 2013 | further studies confirm discrepancies |
| 2014 | defeat devices discussed in technical circles |
| pre-2015 | ”open secret” in industry |
the studies were publicly available. no enforcement action followed.
the regulatory architecture
eu type approval allows manufacturers to choose which member state tests their vehicles.
| feature | practical effect |
|---|---|
| manufacturer picks test authority | regulatory shopping |
| member states compete for business | race to lax standards |
| limited real-world testing | cheating not detected |
| german kba tests volkswagen | headquarters and regulator in same country |
the system appears designed to minimize oversight rather than maximize public health protection.
response comparison
the same corporate fraud. different regulatory responses.
united states
| action | result |
|---|---|
| criminal charges | yes |
| executive arrests | yes |
| prison sentences | multiple |
| total fines | $30+ billion |
| consumer buybacks | offered |
european union
| action | result |
|---|---|
| criminal charges | limited |
| executive arrests | delayed |
| prison sentences | minimal |
| total fines | fraction of us |
| consumer buybacks | not required |
the disparity is difficult to explain through legal differences alone.
the conformity factor response
after dieselgate, the eu introduced real driving emissions testing. this was the appropriate response.
then conformity factors were added.
| standard | allowed NOx |
|---|---|
| legal limit | 80 mg/km |
| with conformity factor (initial) | 168 mg/km |
| stated justification | ”measurement uncertainty” |
the industry lobbied for these factors. the industry received them. the scientific basis for the specific values chosen remains contested.
not just volkswagen
subsequent testing revealed broader issues.
| finding | source |
|---|---|
| most diesel vehicles exceed limits in real conditions | icct, transport & environment |
| average exceedance | 4-7x legal limits |
| ”legal” thermal windows | still being used |
| euro 6 vehicles | still problematic |
volkswagen was caught. the industry-wide problem persists with less attention.
the german government factor
documented lobbying positions:
- opposed stricter eu emission limits
- delayed real driving emissions implementation
- lobbied for conformity factors
- maintained weak domestic enforcement
- resisted consumer compensation requirements
automotive manufacturing is germany’s largest export sector. the regulatory posture appears consistent with that economic interest.
what this suggests
the dieselgate scandal provides a useful case study for understanding:
- regulatory capture in practice
- the gap between stated environmental commitments and enforcement
- how economic interests shape regulatory architecture
- why external oversight (in this case, us epa) sometimes catches what domestic regulators miss
the data doesn’t support the narrative of an isolated corporate failure. it supports a narrative of systematic regulatory accommodation.
sources
- us epa. notice of violation documents (2015)
- european commission. dieselgate timeline
- joint research centre. real driving emissions studies (2011-2014)
- icct. defeat device discovery research
- transport & environment. emissions testing reports
- mit study. mortality estimates (2017)
- bundestag. inquiry documents
- transparency register. automotive lobbying data
- court documents. various jurisdictions
rune.ᛞ