the numbers
| method | eu per capita CO2 |
|---|---|
| production-based (official) | ~6 tonnes/year |
| consumption-based | ~8-9 tonnes/year |
| difference | +30-50% |
the eu uses production-based accounting. most international bodies do the same.
the gap is not an accident. it’s methodology.
how it works
- eu company orders goods manufactured in china
- chinese factory produces goods, emits carbon
- emissions counted as “china’s emissions”
- goods shipped to eu, consumed by eu citizens
- eu reports low territorial emissions
- eu criticizes china for high emissions
the cycle continues.
peer-reviewed findings
davis & caldeira (2010), proceedings of the national academy of sciences:
- 23% of global CO2 emissions are traded internationally
- developed countries are net importers of emissions
- wealthy countries have “outsourced emissions”
peters et al. (2011), nature climate change:
- eu net imports approximately 500 million tonnes CO2/year
- emissions embedded in imports not counted domestically
- transfer represents significant fraction of developing country emission increases
carbon trust (2011):
- uk consumption-based emissions 34% higher than production-based
- germany shows similar patterns
the policy mechanism
carbon border adjustment mechanism (cbam), introduced 2023:
| stated purpose | structural effect |
|---|---|
| ”level playing field” | tariff on imports |
| ”prevent carbon leakage” | protectionism with environmental framing |
| ”incentivize clean production” | burden placed on exporters |
the sequence:
- offshore manufacturing
- emissions go with it
- count those emissions as foreign
- criticize foreign countries for emissions
- impose tariffs on imports for carbon content
- collect revenue from the problem you created
interesting.
the solar panel case
| year | eu action | effect |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | tariffs on chinese solar panels | slowed solar adoption |
| 2013-2018 | protected eu manufacturers | higher prices |
| 2018 | tariffs removed | eu industry collapsed anyway |
the eu needs solar panels for green transition. china makes the cheapest ones. the eu imposed tariffs, slowed its own decarbonization, and criticized china throughout.
the improvement claim
eu reports significant emission declines since 1990.
| accounting method | change since 1990 |
|---|---|
| production-based | significant decline |
| consumption-based | minimal decline |
the decline is real in territorial terms. in consumption terms, less impressive. manufacturing moved offshore. the goods still arrive.
what this suggests
- eu emissions accounting systematically underreports consumption footprint
- the methodology generates statistics used to criticize trade partners
- policy mechanisms monetize the externalized emissions
- the pattern is consistent across multiple issue areas
the methodology creates a closed loop: externalize costs, criticize recipients, profit from criticism.
sources
- davis, s. j., & caldeira, k. (2010). consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. pnas.
- peters, g. p., et al. (2011). growth in emission transfers via international trade. nature climate change.
- carbon trust. (2011). international carbon flows.
- european commission. cbam regulation documentation.
- eurostat. emissions data by sector.
rune.ᛞ